The betting blog of Chris.
I will try to provide good picks mostly from the UEFA Cup, the Qualifying Rounds of the Champions League and Internationals.
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Levski - BATE Borisov    +5.05
Wednesday, August 13th, 2008 20:00
Soccer - Champions L


Pick:  Under 2.25   Result: 0-1
Stake:  5/10   Odds:  2.01
Bookmaker:  Pinnacle   vCash: No  
Posted: Aug 13, 2008, 09:02

It seems from today's sports newspapers in Bulgaria that G.Ivanov will start in the midfield after all. Of course, the current Levski coach is one of a kind and everything could change until kick-off but it's worth speculating how that move will affect the play of Levski.

G.Ivanov did not impress as a midfielder vs. Werder. His partner in the center - Gadzhev also has to prove himself. IMO Tasevski will be more useful. Putting G.Ivanov in the midfield will leave G.Hristov and Krustovchev up-front - maybe the most inexperienced attacking duo Levski would ever field in the European club tournaments. Hristov at least posseses some qualities while Krustovchev has failed to persuade anybody he deserves to be in Levski. There's a good chance the attack will fail to deliver in the early minutes of the match. If there's no goal by half-time, Levski coach Vucov will probably already be on the brink of a nervous break-down and that might provoke some expected and unexpected changes.

BATE won't be in any hurry to score or attack. As seen so far, the team feels perfect when playing on counters and is doing that quite successfully. 0-0 is not a result BATE will mind too much. Of course, they will look for any break in Levski's defence.

If the hypothesis of Hristov+Krustovchev failing to score in the first half comes true, Vucov will probably bring G.Ivanov up-front at the expense of one of the forwards and the team will start increasingly relying on crossings and headers. Levski fans are sick and tired of that as this has been the style for quite some time before the arrival of St.Stoilov as a coach in 2004. Of course, BATE is considered inferior opposition by the vast majority of the fans so if the result in the second half is negative there will be shouts urging all players to attack and who knows - maybe calls for Vucov's resignation. If BATE can hold up until that moment, this will be the time when they will receive enough space for their counters. One of the possible options for the look of Levski defence today includes the Brazilian Ze Soares as right back instead of the more defensive-oriented Milanov. Ze has plenty to contribute in offensive but the defensive play is not his strongest quality.

Now, to the optimistic part (for the home fans). Levski posesses two players of quality that BATE can only dream about. Those two are the goalkeeper Petkov and the central defender Rabeh. They were the reason that Levski didn't lose 0-2 or 0-3 to Werder but managed 0-0. It might be them saving the day for Levski again by keeping a clean sheet.

So, all the possible scenaios that come to my mind point to Under. 1-0, 0-1 or 0-0 are the most probable results IMO. Another option I'm considering is First half under 0.5. There's definately value on the away win - @6.5 (Unibet) and currently 6.8-7 at Betfair. GL!






Litex Lovech - Hapoel Ironi KS
Thursday, August 14th, 2008 19:00
Soccer - UEFA Cup


Pick:  Litex Lovech   Result: Pending
Stake:  6/10   Odds:  1.80
Bookmaker:  BWin   vCash: No  
Posted: Aug 02, 2008, 18:49

Great odds on Litex here. I wouldn't underestimate the Israeli side but Litex is quite experienced in the UEFA Cup - this will be their 8th consecutive year in the competition. In addition Litex have brought Stanimir Stoilov as a coach who led Levski Sofia to the UEFA Cup quarter-finals in 2006.

Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona finished second in the Israeli championship last year which allowed them to play in the UEFA Cup. In the first qualifying round they eliminated the Montenegrin side Mogren(Budva) after 1-1 at home and 3-0 away win.

All in all, I find 1,80 a little bit high here so I would take these odds before they drop. Experience and class should be on Litex side here so I think they will be strong favorites to win the first leg of this tie.

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Omonia Nicosia - FK Milano    +2.4
Thursday, July 17th, 2008 20:00
Soccer - UEFA Cup


Pick:  Omonia Nicosia   Result: 2-0
Stake:  6/10   Odds:  1.40
Bookmaker:  Interwetten   vCash: No  
Posted: Jul 17, 2008, 11:25








Linfield - Dinamo Zagreb    +3.15
Wednesday, July 16th, 2008 21:45
Soccer - Champions L


Pick:  Dinamo Zagreb   Result: 0-2
Stake:  7/10   Odds:  1.45
Bookmaker:  Gamebookers   vCash: No  
Posted: Jul 15, 2008, 09:35








Anorthosis - Pyunik Yerevan    +4
Tuesday, July 15th, 2008 20:00
Soccer - Champions L


Pick:  Anorthosis   Result: 1-0
Stake:  8/10   Odds:  1.50
Bookmaker:  Bet-at-home   vCash: No  
Posted: Jul 12, 2008, 09:37








Hungary - Greece    -6
Saturday, May 24th, 2008 19:00
Soccer - Friendly


Pick:  Greece (+0)   Result: 3-2
Stake:  6/10   Odds:  1.70
Bookmaker:  Canbet   vCash: No  
Posted: May 23, 2008, 16:08

These odds are very good given the morale and quality of both teams. Hungarian football is not on its peak and the recorded losses at Malta, Montenegro and Moldova in the past two years illustrate that. Greece on the other hand, has been solid in the qualifiers and is preparing for a good showing on the European championship. Hungarian players should be already in the mood for vacation just after the end of the domestic championship.
1,70 for Greece DNB is an offer I wouldn't miss.






Russia - stage of elimination    -4
Saturday, June 21st, 2008 20:45
Soccer - International


Pick:  Quarterfinals   Result: Semifinals
Stake:  4/10   Odds:  3.50
Bookmaker:  Sportingbet   vCash: No
Posted: May 22, 2008, 13:37

Three argument support this bet - Hiddink, Greece and the teams in Group C. Let's take a look at the program of Group D:

Tuesday 10 June 2008
7 Spain 18:00 Russia Innsbruck
8 Greece 20:45 Sweden Salzburg

Saturday 14 June 2008
15 Sweden 18:00 Spain Innsbruck
16 Greece 20:45 Russia Salzburg

Wednesday 18 June 2008
23 Greece 20:45 Spain Salzburg
24 Russia 20:45 Sweden Innsbruck

Russia has a good tradition vs. Greece, including a 2-1 win over the Greeks on their way to the European Championship in Portugal'2004. Hiddink has managed to organize the Russian team and the clear result was the elimination of England in the qualifications. Today Russia is able to play for a result and Hiddink is just the man who knows how to position his players and get what he needs. Having this in mind, I expect Russia to claim three points vs. Greece and manage to get just enough vs. Spain and Sweden to qualify for the quarterfinals. Note that the game vs. Spain is in the first round of the group when all teams are playing with the idea not to lose above all.

Should Russia manage to qualify, they will meet one of the top 2 teams in Group C. Here comes the tough part. It seems that will be either Italy or France. Chances will definately not be on the Russian side.

Given these circumstances, 3,50 is an excellent price for Russian elimination at the quarters. GL!






Romania - France    -6
Monday, June 09th, 2008 18:00
Soccer - International


Pick:  France   Result: 0-0
Stake:  6/10   Odds:  1.91
Bookmaker:  Coral   vCash: No  
Posted: May 13, 2008, 09:33

Romania has had excellent as well as disappointing performances in the qualifiers. The 0-0 draw in Holland was a solid display, while the loss to Bulgaria in Sofia and the 1-0 home win vs. Holland were the proof that the team is still missing something. Some people might be surprised with my verdict on the Holland game but it's a fact that the Romanians were lucky not to concede after the many goal chances created by the Dutch and win by an offside goal.

France has also not being quite convincing in the qualifiers, especially in the two games vs. Scotland. However, Italy was allowed to gain just one point from the two encounters and the French deservedly qualified for the finals.

France's squad for the finals is not named yet but it will 99% include the likes of Henry, Trezequet, Vieira, etc. And while not all of the stars are in perfect form there's Ribery in the midfield and red-hot Benzema up-front to deliver if needed.

Group C is nick-named "the group of death" for a good reason. France, Italy, Netherlands and Romania are not easy opponents for anybody. As much as I respect the Romanian team, I think the game vs. them will be France's best chance of recording a win in the group. I believe they will avoid the usual "first-game draw" behavior typical for the European championships.

I would give France at least 55% chance to win this one. 1,91 seems like a good offer here.

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Wigan - Man Utd    -2.5
Sunday, May 11th, 2008 16:00
Soccer - Eng. Premier


Pick:  Wigan (+1.75)   Result: 0-2
Stake:  5/10   Odds:  2.14
Bookmaker:  Pinnacle   vCash: No  
Posted: May 10, 2008, 12:47

Wigan seem little bit undestimated here to me. Bruce's men have improved a lot in defensive plan and I expect them to give hard time to United. 0-1 would do, United are champions and Wigan with heads up!






Chelsea - Bolton    -6
Sunday, May 11th, 2008 16:00
Soccer - Eng. Premier


Pick:  Chelsea (-2)   Result: 1-1
Stake:  6/10   Odds:  2.02
Bookmaker:  Canbet   vCash: No  
Posted: May 10, 2008, 12:34

Chelsea's title motivation vs. Bolton's happiness of survival. 3-0!






Portsmouth - Fulham    -6
Sunday, May 11th, 2008 16:00
Soccer - Eng. Premier


Pick:  Portsmouth (+0.5)   Result: 0-1
Stake:  6/10   Odds:  1.78
Bookmaker:  Pinnacle   vCash: No  
Posted: May 10, 2008, 10:27

Value. Fulham are overestimated due to the "lack of motivation" in Portmouth. However, that's not a Bulgarian Premier match but English top-flight. Value is on the hosts.






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About me

Name:  Chris
Location:  Central Europe
Betting:  Part-time
 
Statistics
 
Picks: 38 
Won: 23 
Win rate: 61% 
Stake avg.: 6.1 
Staked: 230.00 
Returned: 243 
Net balance: +13 
ROI*: 106% 
Streak: ?  
vCash (0/0): $100.00 

*ROI = Return Of Investment


Verified since 2007-06-06
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